Hi TOP 10 HVAC 1! Top 3 HVAC Predictions for 2014!.

Hi TOP 10 HVAC 1! Top 3 HVAC Predictions for 2014!.

An upturn in the economy, a resurgence in multi-family construction, warehouse construction and the arrival of the mini-split system, a compact design split air conditioning or HEAT PUMP, will stimulate the HVAC industry this year.

- "We talk to some experts in the field, to get their top three predictions for HVAC in 2014."

We present all 15 predictions in our info graphic.

Our first prediction; predicts that the sales of component/REPLACEMENT PARTS will remain high.

- “While equipment whole system sales are up over 2012, there are still a lot of system owners who are REPLACING PARTS and continuing to service and repair existing equipment, rather than replacing the equipment. System owners are still trying to get optimal efficiency out of their existing systems rather than just replacing them,”.

Next we foresee continuing growth in the mini-split system. Its relative low cost, ease of installation and flexibility make it an ideal solution for after market and replacement HEATING AND COOLING solutions.

- “Long used internationally, especially in Asia, the mini-split finally will gain major market acceptance in both residential and light commercial units. Major manufacturers expect jumps of 20%+ in unit volume increases vis. 2013,”.

Furthermore it is expected that the improved economy will have a positive impact on the HVAC industry.

- “The HVAC business looks to have a strong 2014,”. “The US economy is showing sustained growth in a number of areas that will affect our industry moving forward. Its expected continued momentum from 2013 4 Th quarter in and beyond next year as facilities’ maintenance personnel maintain their focus on energy consumption and healthy indoor environments.”

You can read the rest of the predictions in our downloadable info graphic & view the remaining 15 HVAC predictions for 2014.

 *Next steps:

View the info graphic complete list of the 15 HVAC predictions by industry experts for 2104, info graphic list below; 

*HVAC industry Expert (A) Predicts;

• Improved Economy Will Have a Positive Impact on HVAC Industry:

The HVAC business looks to have a strong 2014. The US economy is showing sustained growth in a number of areas that will affect our industry moving forward. We expect continued momentum from 2013 4 Th quarter in and beyond next year as facilities’ maintenance personnel maintain their focus on energy consumption and healthy indoor environments.

• Increased Focus on HVAC Upgrades, Maintenance:

Orders will be focused in and around HVAC upgrades and maintenance-related items, particularly in federal and state government buildings where it has been prioritized nationally. ENERGY COSTS related to HVAC tend to be the highest profile expense that can be addressed in a building.

• Indoor Air Quality Problems Spur HVAC Innovations:

In addition, the INDOOR AIR QUALITY problems that have recently made headlines will drive further innovation and market development within this space. 

*HVAC industry Expert (B) Predicts;

• Continuing Mini-Split System Category Growth:

The mini-split revolution continues in 2014. Its relative low cost, ease of install and flexibility make it an ideal solution for after market and replacement HEATING AND COOLING solutions. Long used internationally, especially in Asia, the mini-split finally will gain major market acceptance in both residential and light commercial units. Major manufacturers expect jumps of 20%+ in unit volume increases vis. 2013.

• Social Media Providing a Large Megaphone for Unhappy Contractors:

Anecdotal evidence of popular message boards, social networking sites and the like show major issues with very large name brand HVAC components on the market today. Contractors now have large-scale outlets to air grievances. Many of these contractors identify the move to international manufacturing (Asia, Mexico) as well as the continued stratification of brands (good, better, best approaches) as causal elements. As prices of more traditional ducted HVAC systems continue to decrease and the consumer knowledge of SEER (Seasonal Energy Efficiency Ratio) levels increase, installers are looking for brands that can deliver consistent, reliable performance and are not afraid of moving to other brands quickly. SOCIAL MEDIA PLATFORMS are aiding in this and manufacturers need to pay close attention.

• Continuing Trends in Energy Efficiency Will Push Product Mix and Technology Innovation:

Trends in more efficient systems will not slow down, and in fact will only accelerate. With over 50% of all electrical power used in the US for environmental control (HVAC) pressure to deliver more efficiency at a fair price is not only coming from consumers who pay the bills (households and businesses), but from power generation and grid owners. As such, more efficient, lower TCO (total cost of ownership) solutions will become more prevalent and will continue to push technology innovation. Solar co-generation, more cost-effective geothermal solutions, SPLIT SYSTEMS and higher SEER-ducted units are just a few technologies to name.

*HVAC industry Expert (C) Predicts;

• Emphasis on Workforce Education, Training for HVAC Techs:

Technician competence has become a huge issue, both for HVAC Technicians where this has been identified as a major barrier to better maintenance of HVAC and service providers in other areas. Part of this is due to the economic pressures of the last few years. Contractors are being pressured to provide more for less. One statistic that is frightening is that technicians are leaving the field through RETIREMENT and other causes slightly more rapidly than replacements are being brought in. I expect a lot of emphasis on work force education and training during 2014.

• Variable Refrigerant Flow Technology Trend Will Grow in US:

Variable REFRIGERANT Flow (VRF) – this technology which has been popular in Asia for years really started penetrating the US MARKET in 2013. We expect that trend to grow dramatically during 2014. The driving reasons are threefold: a) VRF is inherently efficient. Many of the systems have energy recovery capabilities. All have variable speed drives on fans and compressors so they only use the energy needed; b) they provide good comfort control as the small distributed terminal units allow for effective zone control; c) Initial cost can be considerably cheaper than large central systems. From an IAQ standpoint, however these can be challenging. Without additional equipment, they do not provide outside air so they cannot satisfy the demands of ASHRAE Standard 62. In addition, they typically have low efficiency filters and thus little ability to remove suspended particles and other air contamination.

• More Complex, Potentially Exciting Technology:

In the HVAC world, this consists of on board diagnostics that are capable of monitoring package unit and other operation and detecting faults and operating statistics. Can we look forward to HVAC SYSTEMS with computers embedded like in our auto mobiles? Possibly. It certainly offers a lot of possibilities and hopefully as manufacturers design these systems, they will incorporate IAQ-related capability along with those targeting the mechanical portions of the equipment.

*HVAC industry Expert (D) Predicts;

• Continued Increase in Multi-Family Construction:

Multi-family construction spending was up 46% in the first 10 months of 2013, compared to the same period in 2012. That’s the strongest of any segment. In 2014, spending on multi-family construction will continue to increase but not at such a spectacular rate. But still quite possibly a double-digit increase in spending because people are still leery of buying single-family homes knowing they may not be able to sell when they want to or need to. Also fewer people qualify for mortgages with tighter lending standards and gradually rising INTEREST RATES.

• Energy Efficiency May Be Hampered by Lack of Tax Breaks:

There’s still a great interest on the part of owners to hold down their ENERGY COSTS and that applies to retrofitting existing buildings as well as new structures. However, I don’t think we’re going to have federal tax incentives in place for much of the year. Some of the federal tax credits will be expiring on Dec. 31. So decisions about installing energy-efficient systems will really depend on the savings just for the energy costs rather than from any tax breaks.

• Growth in Warehouse Construction Propelled by Same-Day Delivery:

Warehouse construction spending in the first 10 months of 2013 was up 21% from the same period in 2012. In 2014, warehouse construction will increase. Warehouse construction is being propelled by the race to deliver goods on the same day whether it’s by Amazon, Wal-Mart, or Best Buy. There’s certainly a demand for very modern and well located distribution space for that goal and as we near the opening of the widened Panama Canal in 2015, people are going to want to have WAREHOUSE SPACE well positioned near the ports.

*HVAC industry Expert (E) Predicts;

• Sales of Component/REPLACEMENT PARTS Will Remain High:

While equipment whole system sales are up over 2012, there are still a lot of system owners who are REPLACING PARTS and continuing to service and repair existing equipment, rather than replacing the equipment. System owners are still trying to get optimal efficiency out of their existing systems rather than just replacing them. This will continue to be mixed – buying new equipment, repairing existing systems – because last year at this time, consumer confidence was up slightly and that bore out to better equipment sales throughout 2013. But consumer confidence is down sharply in the last couple of months and they’re still fairly pessimistic about 2014, so I believe that indicates as a group they will try to keep their systems running as long as they can.

• Continued Emphasis on Whole Building Performance:

The momentum is building for HVAC CONTRACTORS to be more concerned about the whole building performance, and at the same time, the building performance industry is trying to better understand just how much the HVAC systems are critical to that building performance. The prediction for 2014 is that we’ll see that continue on both the consumer and the service provider sides of the equation and you also see increased collaboration amongst many of the industry associations in that regard.

• Regulatory Environment Will Impact HVAC Industry:

There will be more regulatory activity, not legislative activity. Department of Energy efficiency standards are coming fast and furious in all different sectors and equipment types. There is a lot of rule making under way, proposed and final and out for comment about efficiency standards for both refrigeration and air conditioning and furnaces, and the EPA (Environmental Protection Agency) is looking at prioritizing applications for other SNAP (Significant New Alternatives Policy) alternative REFRIGERANTS such as hydrocarbons or HFOs (hydrofluoric-olefin's) but also possibly de listing some of the HFC refrigerants. The EPA would lay out a time frame for that to happen, which would start really changing the landscape of equipment selection options.